OE Watch Commentary: What will the foreign policy of post-Mubarak Egypt look like? Ever since Anwar Sadat transformed Egypt from American Cold War foe to ally in the 1970s, Egyptian foreign policy had been steady and predictable enough. Egypt’s alliance with the West was further institutionalized in 1989, when it became a Major non-NATO Ally (MNNA). For Mubarak, this alliance eventually backfired domestically: Egypt’s quiescent and conservative foreign policy, particularly regarding the Palestinian issue, was one of several mobilizers for the January 2011 protests that toppled his regime. The contours of the new Egypt’s foreign policy are still blurry, in part given the fact that the country remains a politically odd combination of youthful, revolutionary energy (represented by the popular overthrow of Mubarak) and cautious, conservative political Islam (represented by new President Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood-backed Freedom and Justice Party (FJP)).
Egypt’s foreign policy choices are, in part, constrained by domestic challenges: the ongoing political crisis, the lack of domestic consensus on foreign policy orientations, and the near collapse of service provision and the economy. This domestic disarray puts Egypt at a comparative disadvantage: together with the constraints created by Mubarak’s legacy, they complicate the viability of any nascent post-revolutionary foreign policy. The historical legacy of Nasserism, when Egypt represented the vanguard of Arab foreign policy, will continue to loom large.
Egypt’s new foreign policy may have an Eastern bent. Pakistan, India and China – three of the countries Morsi has visited as president – are the focus of the first accompanying article, which explains the challenges to Egypt’s “Asian Pivot.” Morsi has racked up quite a few travel miles since becoming president; in fact, he often spends more time en route than at his actual destination. The second accompanying article, authored by one of the most widely read columnists in the Arab world, pleads with Morsi to spend more time at home. While acknowledging the importance of high-level face-to-face diplomacy, the author explains that Egypt’s own internal affairs must be in order for Morsi to be effective abroad.
Morsi’s most recent excursion was to Sudan. According to the third accompanying article, taken from an independent Sudanese news website, Khartoum wanted this trip and Doha helped make it happen. The Sudanese government hopes to reset relations with Egypt in order to negotiate over Nile waters as a unified front. More broadly, the Sudanese government hopes to deepen these oft-fractious ties by emphasizing the common Islamic foundation of the ruling party. Meanwhile, Qatar’s role in Egyptian foreign policy and the “Morsi-as-Qatari-Pawn” meme are gaining traction. Bassem Youssef (“The Egyptian John Stewart”) may be at the forefront in this regard. His return to the screen, after being called in by prosecutors for a number of transgressions, was highlighted by a cheeky rendition of an Egyptian nationalist song in which the phrase “my homeland” was exchanged for “my Qatar.” Many Egyptians doubtless find the idea of a small Gulf emirate wielding significant influence on Egyptian policy distasteful.
It is the Egypt-Iran locus, however, which is drawing most attention these days. In late March flight service between Cairo and Tehran was renewed for the first time in over three decades. Only a few days later, “Salafist protesters” tried to storm the residence of Iran’s charge d’affaires in Cairo. Shortly thereafter, the inter-capital flight service was suspended until June, pending review. Amidst the theatrics, a serious debate on Egypt-Iran rapprochement is taking place. The fourth accompanying article attests to this: coming from one of Egypt’s most serious dailies, it represents an issue that influential opinion makers – particularly in Egypt but in the region as a whole – are strongly debating and which is yet another front in the growing battle for Arab public opinion between Iran and the Gulf States. End OE Watch Commentary (Winter)